IC Trading Asia Fundamental Forecast | 17 March 2025
What happened in the U.S. session?
The British Pound (GBP) weakened following a disappointing GDP m/m report of -0.1%, falling short of the expected 0.1%, signaling economic contraction and reducing the likelihood of a Bank of England rate hike. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar (USD) remained firm, despite a sharp decline in consumer sentiment, with the Prelim University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment dropping to 57.9 from the expected 63.1. However, the impact of weak sentiment was offset by a rise in inflation expectations to 4.9% (from 4.3%), reinforcing speculation that the Federal Reserve might maintain a hawkish stance
What does it mean for the Asia Session?
As Asian markets is expected to open with continued GBP weakness, sustained USD strength, and further JPY depreciation. The British Pound is likely to remain under pressure, following the negative UK GDP report (-0.1%), reducing expectations for Bank of England rate hikes and weighing on GBP/USD and GBP/JPY. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar is expected to stay strong, supported by rising inflation expectations (4.9%), reinforcing the likelihood of prolonged Federal Reserve hawkishness. However, concerns over weak U.S. consumer sentiment (57.9) may temper gains and introduce mixed movement across USD pairs.
At the same time, JPY weakness is set to continue, as softening Bank of Japan rate hike expectations keep USD/JPY elevated, while risk-sensitive JPY crosses like AUD/JPY and EUR/JPY may see upward momentum if market sentiment remains stable. AUD and NZD could face pressure,
The Dollar Index (DXY)
Key news events today
Core Retail Sales m/m ( 2:00 pm GMT)
Retail Sales m/m ( 2:00 pm GMT)
What can we expect from DXY today?
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is expected to experience heightened volatility today, with market participants closely watching the release of Core Retail Sales m/m and Retail Sales m/m at 2:00 PM GMT. A stronger-than-expected retail sales report could reinforce expectations of economic resilience and sustained consumer spending, potentially supporting the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance and driving the DXY higher. Conversely, weaker-than-expected retail data may signal a slowdown in consumer activity, raising concerns about economic momentum and leading to DXY weakness as rate hike expectations soften.
Central Bank Notes:
- The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 29 January.
- The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
- Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labour market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
- December’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) now indicates just two rate cuts in 2025 totalling 50 bps, compared to the full percentage point of reductions projected in the previous quarter.
- GDP growth forecasts were revised upward for 2024 (2.5% vs. 2% in the September projection) and 2025 (2.1% vs. 2%), while remaining steady at 2% for 2026. Similarly, PCE inflation projections have been adjusted higher for 2024 (2.4% vs. 2.3%), 2025 (2.5% vs. 2.1%), and 2026 (2.1% vs. 2%).
- In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals.
- The Committee will roll over at auction the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of Treasury securities maturing in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $25 billion per month and redeem Treasury coupon securities up to this monthly cap and Treasury bills to the extent that coupon principal payments are less than the monthly cap.
- In addition, the Committee will reinvest the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) received in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $35 billion per month into Treasury securities to roughly match the maturity composition of Treasury securities outstanding.
- The next meeting runs from 18 to 19 March 2025.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
Gold (XAU)
Key news events today
Core Retail Sales m/m ( 2:00 pm GMT)
Retail Sales m/m ( 2:00 pm GMT)
What can we expect from Gold today?
Gold (XAU/USD) recently surpassed the $3,000 milestone, reaching a high of $3,000+ per ounce before pulling back slightly to around $2,991.86. This surge was driven by increased central bank purchases, a weakening U.S. dollar, and escalating geopolitical tensions, including trade tariff disputes and political uncertainties. Analysts anticipate a potential bearish correction, with key support near $2,905, while continued bullish momentum could see resistance at $3,125.
Today, gold’s movement will be influenced by the U.S. Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales reports at 2:00 PM GMT. A strong reading could strengthen the U.S. dollar, applying downward pressure on gold, while weaker-than-expected data could reinforce gold’s safe-haven appeal and drive prices higher.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The Australian Dollar (AUD)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from AUD today?
With no major news events, the Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) is expected to trade within its established technical range. The pair has recently rebounded from the 0.62 handle and is approaching the 0.6350 resistance zone, where selling pressure may emerge.
On the daily timeframe, key technical levels include:
Immediate Support at 0.6250, where buyers may step in to defend the level and attempt another push higher.
Key Resistance at 0.6350, a significant barrier that could cap further gains unless breached, in which case the next target would be the 0.65 handle.
Central Bank Notes:
- The RBA reduced the cash rate by 25 basis points to bring it down to 4.10% on 18 February, marking the first rate cut since November 2020.
- Financial conditions are restrictive, which is weighing on demand and is helping to bring down underlying inflation; growth in private demand has been subdued.
- Underlying inflation has moderated over the past three quarters with trimmed mean inflation easing to 3.2% over 2024 and it is expected to reach the 2–3% target range in early 2025, which is sooner than expected at the time of the November Statement.
- The unemployment rate declined a little in late 2024 to 4% with much of the strength in the labour market underpinned by strong employment growth, which has also bolstered household incomes.
- The announcement of tariffs between the United States and other major economies poses challenges to the global outlook but the scale and incidence of the tariffs and their effects remain highly uncertain – which may itself delay some investment until the outlook becomes clearer.
- Economic activity strengthened in China but growth there is still facing structural headwinds while domestic economic growth is forecast to pick up and the labour market is forecast to remain tight.
- If the cash rate follows the market path, underlying inflation is projected to be a little above 2.5% over most of the forecast period. The anticipated recovery of GDP growth and lingering tightness in labour market conditions are expected to sustain some upward pressure on inflation.
- Sustainably returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe remains the Board’s highest priority. This is consistent with the RBA’s mandate for price stability and full employment.
- The Board will continue to rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions, paying close attention to developments in the global economy and financial markets, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market.
- The next meeting is on 1 April 2025.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from NZD today?
With no major news events, NZD/USD is expected to trade within its established technical range, primarily driven by broader market sentiment and technical factors. The pair has been consolidating after recent moves, with price action likely to remain contained within key support and resistance levels.
On the daily timeframe, key levels to watch include:
Immediate Support at 0.5685, where buyers may step in to prevent further downside and attempt a rebound.
Key Resistance at 0.6800, a significant level where selling pressure could emerge, limiting upside potential. A breakout above this zone could push NZD/USD toward the 0.6000 handle.
Central Bank Notes:
- The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points bringing it down to 3.75% on 19 February, marking the fourth consecutive rate cut.
- The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation remains near the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band; inflation expectations are at target and core inflation continues to fall towards the target mid-point.
- Economic activity in New Zealand remains subdued and with spare productive capacity, domestic inflation pressures continue to ease. Price and wage-setting behaviours are adapting to a low-inflation environment while the price of imports has fallen, also contributing to lower headline inflation.
- Economic growth is expected to recover during 2025 as lower interest rates will encourage spending, although elevated global economic uncertainty is expected to weigh on business investment decisions. Higher prices for some key commodities and a lower exchange rate will increase export revenues and employment growth is expected to pick up in the second half of the year as the domestic economy recovers.
- Global economic growth is expected to remain subdued in the near term as geopolitics, including uncertainty about trade barriers, is likely to weaken global growth. Global economic activity is also likely to remain fragile over the medium term given increasing geoeconomic fragmentation.
- Consumer price inflation is expected to be volatile in the near term, due to a lower exchange rate and higher petrol prices. Nevertheless, the Committee is well placed to maintain price stability over the medium term.
- The economic outlook remains consistent with inflation remaining in the band over the medium term, giving the Committee confidence to continue lowering the OCR. If economic conditions continue to evolve as projected, the Committee has scope to lower the OCR further through 2025.
- The next meeting is on 9 April 2025.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The Japanese Yen (JPY)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from JPY today?
With no major news events, JPY is expected to trade within its technical range, driven by broader market sentiment. USD/JPY is consolidating near 149.00, reflecting indecision.
Key levels on the daily timeframe:
Support at 146.84, a critical level that could signal further downside if breached.
Resistance at 149.44, where a breakout could push USD/JPY toward 149.00
Central Bank Notes:
- The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 24 January, by an 8-1 majority vote, to set the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
- The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
- The Bank will embark on a plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs so that it will be about 3 trillion yen in January-March 2026; the amount will be cut down by about 400 billion yen each calendar quarter in principle.
- Japan’s economy has recovered moderately, although some weakness has been seen in part. Exports and industrial production have been more or less flat while corporate profits have been on an improving trend and business sentiment has stayed at a favourable level.
- The employment and income situation has improved moderately while private consumption has been on a moderately increasing trend despite the impact of price rises and other factors.
- On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been at around 3% recently, as services prices have continued to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, although the effects of a pass-through to consumer prices of cost increases led by the past rise in import prices have waned.
- Inflation expectations have risen moderately while underlying CPI inflation has been increasing gradually toward the price stability target of 2%. With wages continuing to rise, there has been an increase in moves to reflect higher costs, such as increased personnel expenses and distribution costs, in selling prices.
- Japan’s economy is likely to keep growing at a pace above its potential growth rate, with overseas economies continuing to grow moderately and as a virtuous cycle from income to spending gradually intensifies against the background of factors such as accommodative financial conditions.
- The next meeting is on 19 March 2025.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The Euro (EUR)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from EUR today?
With no major news events, EUR is expected to trade within its technical range, driven by overall market sentiment and U.S. Dollar movements. EUR/USD is consolidating near 1.0840, reflecting a neutral outlook as traders assess broader macro trends.
Key levels on the daily timeframe:
Support at 1.0674, a key level where buyers may step in to defend against further downside.
Resistance at 1.0984, a crucial barrier that, if breached, could push EUR/USD toward 1.1212
Central Bank Notes:
- The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 6 March to mark the fifth successive rate cut.
- Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.65%, 2.90% and 2.50% respectively.
- The Council acknowledged that monetary policy was becoming meaningfully less restrictive, easing borrowing costs for businesses and households with inflation projected to average 2.3% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, and 2.0% in 2027, while core inflation also neared the 2% target.
- Although domestic inflation remains elevated due to delayed wage and price adjustments, wage growth is moderating.
- Economic growth forecasts were revised downward to 0.9% for 2025 and 1.2% for 2026, reflecting weak exports and investment.
- The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
- The ECB remains data-dependent and will adjust its policy as needed to ensure inflation stabilizes around its 2% medium-term target without committing to a specific rate path.
- The next meeting is on 17 April 2025.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The Swiss Franc (CHF)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from CHF today?
With no major news events, CHF is expected to trade within its technical range, primarily influenced by risk sentiment and U.S. Dollar strength. USD/CHF is consolidating near 0.8850, reflecting cautious market sentiment.
Key levels on the daily timeframe:
Support at 0.8750, where buyers may emerge to prevent further downside.
Resistance at 0.8912, a key barrier that, if broken, could push USD/CHF toward 0.8950.
Central Bank Notes:
- The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 50 basis points, going from 1.00% to 0.50% on 12 December, marking the fourth consecutive reduction.
- Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased again this quarter.
- Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected as it decreased from 1.1% in August to 0.7% in November; both goods and services contributed to this decline.
- In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is below that of September: 1.1% for 2024, 0.3% for 2025 and 0.8% for 2026, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 0.5% over the entire forecast horizon.
- GDP growth in Switzerland was only modest in the third quarter of 2024 with growth in the services sector again somewhat stronger, while value added in manufacturing declined.
- There was a further slight increase in unemployment, and employment growth was subdued while the utilisation of overall production capacity was normal.
- The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1% this year while currently expecting growth of between 1.0% and 1.5% for 2025.
- The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
- The next meeting is on 20 March 2025.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The Pound (GBP)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from GBP today?
GBP is expected to trade within its technical range, influenced by market sentiment and U.S. Dollar strength. GBP/USD is consolidating near 1.2940, reflecting a neutral outlook as traders assess broader macro trends.
Key levels on the daily timeframe:
Support at 1.2780, where buyers may step in to prevent further downside.
Resistance at 1.3000, a key psychological level that, if breached, could push GBP/USD toward 1.3251
Central Bank Notes:
- The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 7 to 2 to reduce the Bank Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to bring it down to 4.50% on 6 February 2025, while two members preferred to reduce it by 50 bps.
- The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
- CPI inflation was 2.5% in 2024 Q4 as domestic inflationary pressures moderated but remained somewhat elevated while some indicators eased more slowly than expected. Higher global energy costs and regulated price changes are expected to push up headline CPI inflation to 3.7% in 2025 Q3, even as underlying domestic inflationary pressures are expected to wane further.
- While CPI inflation is expected to fall back to around the 2% target thereafter, the Committee will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures.
- GDP growth has been weaker than expected at the time of the November Monetary Policy Report, and indicators of business and consumer confidence have declined – GDP growth is expected to pick up from the middle of this year.
- The labour market has continued to ease and is judged to be broadly in balance. Productivity growth has been weaker than previously estimated, and the Committee judges that growth in the supply capacity of the economy has weakened.
- Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
- Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
- The next meeting is on 8 May 2025.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The Canadian Dollar (CAD)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from CAD today?
With no major news events, CAD is expected to trade within its technical range, primarily influenced by oil prices and U.S. Dollar movements. USD/CAD is consolidating near 1.4300, reflecting a neutral outlook as traders assess broader market conditions.
Key levels on the daily timeframe:
Support at 1.4149, where buyers may step in to limit downside movement.
Resistance at 1.4538, a key barrier that, if breached, could push USD/CAD toward 1.4800
Central Bank Notes:
- The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points bringing it down to 2.75% on 12 March; this marked the seventh consecutive meeting where rates were reduced.
- The bank announced its plan to complete the normalization of its balance sheet, ending quantitative tightening, and will restart asset purchases in early March, beginning gradually so that its balance sheet stabilizes and then grows modestly, in line with growth in the economy.
- The Governing Council noted that the economy grew more than expected in the fourth quarter of last year, spurred by past rate cuts but growth is now expected to slow at the turn of the year due to increasing trade conflict with the United States.
- Employment growth strengthened in November through January and the unemployment rate declined to 6.6%. In February, job growth stalled. While past interest rate cuts have boosted demand for labour in recent months, there are warning signs that heightened trade tensions could disrupt the recovery in the jobs market. Meanwhile, wage growth has shown signs of moderation.
- Inflation remains close to the 2% target. The temporary suspension of the GST/HST lowered some consumer prices, but January’s CPI was slightly firmer than expected at 1.9%. Inflation is expected to increase to about 2½% in March with the end of the tax break. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation remain above 2%, mainly because of the persistence of shelter price inflation. Short-term inflation expectations have risen in light of fears about the impact of tariffs on prices.
- While economic growth has come in stronger than expected, the pervasive uncertainty created by continuously changing U.S. tariff threats is restraining consumers’ spending intentions and businesses’ plans to hire and invest.
- While monetary policy cannot offset the impacts of a trade war, the Governing Council will carefully assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs.
- The Council will also be closely monitoring inflation expectations and is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.
- The next meeting is on 16 April 2025.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
Oil
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from Oil today?
With no major news event, WTI crude oil is expected to trade within its technical range, driven by market sentiment and supply-demand dynamics. WTI is consolidating near $70 per barrel, reflecting indecision as traders assess broader macroeconomic conditions.
Key levels on the daily timeframe:
Support at $65.5.00, where buyers may step in to defend against further downside.
Resistance at $69.56, a key barrier that, if breached, could push WTI toward $72.37
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
