IC Trading Asia Fundamental Forecast | 19 March 2025
What happened in the U.S. session?
Canada released its inflation data, revealing a significant surge across all measures. The CPI m/m jumped to 1.1%, far exceeding the forecast of 0.6% and previous 0.1%. Median CPI y/y rose to 2.9%, surpassing both the forecast and previous reading of 2.7%. Similarly, Trimmed CPI y/y increased to 2.9% from 2.7%. This unexpected spike in inflation, primarily driven by the end of a sales tax break and broad-based price increases, pushed the annual inflation rate to 2.6% in February, an eight-month high. The sharp rise in core inflation measures complicates the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy outlook, likely putting potential interest rate cuts on hold. In response, the Canadian dollar appreciated, and yields on two-year government bonds increased, reflecting market expectations of a potential pause in the interest rate reduction cycle.
The U.S. dollar’s recent weakness due to economic slowdown concerns is likely to influence the DXY more than Canada’s inflation data. Although the Canadian figures may cause short-term fluctuations in USD/CAD, their impact on the DXY is expected to be limited, with the Fed’s decision remaining the primary driver for the index’s near-term direction.
What does it mean for the Asia Session?
The higher-than-expected Canadian inflation data is likely to have a limited direct impact on the Asian session, but it may contribute to overall market sentiment. Asian traders may pay closer attention to upcoming inflation releases, such as Japan’s Tokyo Core CPI, and reassess expectations for regional central bank policies. The Canadian dollar’s initial strength could indirectly influence other commodity-linked currencies in Asia, like the Australian and New Zealand dollars. This unexpected inflation spike may contribute to a cautious mood in Asian markets, affecting equity performance and safe-haven flows. Overall, while not a primary driver, the Canadian inflation data adds to the complex global economic picture that Asian markets will need to navigate in the coming sessions.
The Dollar Index (DXY)
Key news events today
Federal Funds Rate (6:00 pm GMT)
FOMC Economic Projections (6:00 pm GMT)
FOMC Statement (6:00 pm GMT)
FOMC Press Conference (6:30 pm GMT)
What can we expect from DXY today?
The DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) is likely to experience heightened volatility today as the Federal Reserve announces its interest rate decision and economic projections. The Fed is expected to maintain the federal funds rate at the current range of 4.25% to 4.50%. However, the market’s focus will be on the updated “dot plot” and the FOMC statement for clues about future rate cuts.
The DXY, currently trading near 103.18, may see significant movement based on the Fed’s communication. If the Fed maintains a cautious stance and signals fewer rate cuts than previously anticipated, the DXY could strengthen. Conversely, if the Fed indicates a more dovish outlook or expresses concerns about economic growth, the DXY might weaken
Central Bank Notes:
- The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 29 January.
- The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
- Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labour market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
- December’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) now indicates just two rate cuts in 2025 totalling 50 bps, compared to the full percentage point of reductions projected in the previous quarter.
- GDP growth forecasts were revised upward for 2024 (2.5% vs. 2% in the September projection) and 2025 (2.1% vs. 2%), while remaining steady at 2% for 2026. Similarly, PCE inflation projections have been adjusted higher for 2024 (2.4% vs. 2.3%), 2025 (2.5% vs. 2.1%), and 2026 (2.1% vs. 2%).
- In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals.
- The Committee will roll over at auction the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of Treasury securities maturing in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $25 billion per month and redeem Treasury coupon securities up to this monthly cap and Treasury bills to the extent that coupon principal payments are less than the monthly cap.
- In addition, the Committee will reinvest the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) received in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $35 billion per month into Treasury securities to roughly match the maturity composition of Treasury securities outstanding.
- The next meeting runs from 18 to 19 March 2025.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
Gold (XAU)
Key news events today
Federal Funds Rate (6:00 pm GMT)
FOMC Economic Projections (6:00 pm GMT)
FOMC Statement (6:00 pm GMT)
FOMC Press Conference (6:30 pm GMT)
What can we expect from Gold today?
Gold (XAU/USD) is likely to experience heightened volatility today as traders await the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and economic projections. Currently trading at $3035.4, gold remains near its recent all-time highs. The metal may see consolidation or slight pullbacks ahead of the Fed announcements, with immediate support around the $3005 area. However, the overall bullish trend remains intact, supported by geopolitical and economic concerns.
The FOMC statement and press conference will be crucial in determining gold’s short-term direction. If the Fed maintains a cautious stance or signals fewer rate cuts than anticipated, gold might face some downward pressure. Conversely, a more dovish outlook could propel gold prices higher, potentially targeting the $3055-$3155 range.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
The Australian Dollar (AUD)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from AUD today?
With no major economic events scheduled, AUD/USD is expected to trade within a technical range, primarily driven by risk sentiment, U.S. dollar movement, and commodity price fluctuations. The pair remains supported by broad USD weakness, but upside momentum may be limited without new fundamental drivers.
Key Levels on the H4 Timeframe:
Support at 0.6330, where buyers may step in to prevent further downside.
Resistance at 0.6405 is a key level that, if breached, could push AUD/USD toward 0.6506.
Central Bank Notes:
- The RBA reduced the cash rate by 25 basis points to bring it down to 4.10% on 18 February, marking the first rate cut since November 2020.
- Financial conditions are restrictive, which is weighing on demand and is helping to bring down underlying inflation; growth in private demand has been subdued.
- Underlying inflation has moderated over the past three quarters with trimmed mean inflation easing to 3.2% over 2024 and it is expected to reach the 2–3% target range in early 2025, which is sooner than expected at the time of the November Statement.
- The unemployment rate declined a little in late 2024 to 4% with much of the strength in the labour market underpinned by strong employment growth, which has also bolstered household incomes.
- The announcement of tariffs between the United States and other major economies poses challenges to the global outlook but the scale and incidence of the tariffs and their effects remain highly uncertain – which may itself delay some investment until the outlook becomes clearer.
- Economic activity strengthened in China but growth there is still facing structural headwinds while domestic economic growth is forecast to pick up and the labour market is forecast to remain tight.
- If the cash rate follows the market path, underlying inflation is projected to be a little above 2.5% over most of the forecast period. The anticipated recovery of GDP growth and lingering tightness in labour market conditions are expected to sustain some upward pressure on inflation.
- Sustainably returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe remains the Board’s highest priority. This is consistent with the RBA’s mandate for price stability and full employment.
- The Board will continue to rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions, paying close attention to developments in the global economy and financial markets, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market.
- The next meeting is on 1 April 2025.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)
Key news events today
GDP q/q ( 9:45 pm GMT)
What can we expect from NZD today?
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is likely to experience increased volatility today as traders await the release of the GDP q/q data at 9:45 pm GMT. Currently trading near a three-month high of 0.5820 against the USD, the NZD maintains a bullish bias. The GDP data will be crucial in determining the short-term direction of the Kiwi. A stronger-than-expected GDP figure could propel the NZD/USD pair towards the 0.5835 resistance level, with the potential for further gains if this level is breached. However, if the GDP data disappoints, we might see a pullback towards the support area around 0.5745. Traders should also be mindful of the broader market sentiment and the upcoming Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan policy decisions, which could influence the NZD’s performance in the coming sessions
Central Bank Notes:
- The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points bringing it down to 3.75% on 19 February, marking the fourth consecutive rate cut.
- The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation remains near the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band; inflation expectations are at target and core inflation continues to fall towards the target mid-point.
- Economic activity in New Zealand remains subdued and with spare productive capacity, domestic inflation pressures continue to ease. Price and wage-setting behaviours are adapting to a low-inflation environment while the price of imports has fallen, also contributing to lower headline inflation.
- Economic growth is expected to recover during 2025 as lower interest rates will encourage spending, although elevated global economic uncertainty is expected to weigh on business investment decisions. Higher prices for some key commodities and a lower exchange rate will increase export revenues and employment growth is expected to pick up in the second half of the year as the domestic economy recovers.
- Global economic growth is expected to remain subdued in the near term as geopolitics, including uncertainty about trade barriers, is likely to weaken global growth. Global economic activity is also likely to remain fragile over the medium term given increasing geoeconomic fragmentation.
- Consumer price inflation is expected to be volatile in the near term, due to a lower exchange rate and higher petrol prices. Nevertheless, the Committee is well placed to maintain price stability over the medium term.
- The economic outlook remains consistent with inflation remaining in the band over the medium term, giving the Committee confidence to continue lowering the OCR. If economic conditions continue to evolve as projected, the Committee has scope to lower the OCR further through 2025.
- The next meeting is on 9 April 2025.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
The Japanese Yen (JPY)
Key news events today
BOJ Policy Rate (Tentative )
Monetary Policy Statement (Tentative )
BOJ Press Conference (Tentative )
What can we expect from JPY today?
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is expected to experience significant volatility today as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) concludes its two-day policy meeting. The central bank is widely anticipated to keep its policy rate unchanged at 0.5%, maintaining a cautious approach to monetary tightening. However, the Monetary Policy Statement and Governor Kazuo Ueda’s press conference will be closely monitored for any signals about future rate hikes, especially given rising inflation and wage growth in Japan.
If the BoJ adopts a hawkish tone, emphasizing the need for further rate increases due to persistent inflationary pressures, the yen could strengthen sharply. Conversely, a dovish stance or lack of clarity on future policy adjustments may weaken the yen. Currently, USD/JPY is trading near 149.75, with key support at 148.75 and resistance at 151.55
Central Bank Notes:
- The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 24 January, by an 8-1 majority vote, to set the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
- The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
- The Bank will embark on a plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs so that it will be about 3 trillion yen in January-March 2026; the amount will be cut down by about 400 billion yen each calendar quarter in principle.
- Japan’s economy has recovered moderately, although some weakness has been seen in part. Exports and industrial production have been more or less flat while corporate profits have been on an improving trend and business sentiment has stayed at a favourable level.
- The employment and income situation has improved moderately while private consumption has been on a moderately increasing trend despite the impact of price rises and other factors.
- On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been at around 3% recently, as services prices have continued to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, although the effects of a pass-through to consumer prices of cost increases led by the past rise in import prices have waned.
- Inflation expectations have risen moderately while underlying CPI inflation has been increasing gradually toward the price stability target of 2%. With wages continuing to rise, there has been an increase in moves to reflect higher costs, such as increased personnel expenses and distribution costs, in selling prices.
- Japan’s economy is likely to keep growing at a pace above its potential growth rate, with overseas economies continuing to grow moderately and as a virtuous cycle from income to spending gradually intensifies against the background of factors such as accommodative financial conditions.
- The next meeting is on 19 March 2025.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The Euro (EUR)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from EUR today?
With no major news events, EUR/USD is expected to trade within a technical range, driven by overall market sentiment and U.S. dollar movements. The pair remains supported by dollar weakness, with upside potential as risk appetite stabilizes.
Key Levels on the H4 Timeframe:
Support: Immediate support lies at 1.0766, where buyers may step in to sustain bullish momentum. A break below this level could expose the pair to further downside toward 1.0700.
Resistance: Resistance stands at 1.0984, a key level that, if breached, could push EUR/USD toward 1.1212.
Central Bank Notes:
- The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 6 March to mark the fifth successive rate cut.
- Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.65%, 2.90% and 2.50% respectively.
- The Council acknowledged that monetary policy was becoming meaningfully less restrictive, easing borrowing costs for businesses and households with inflation projected to average 2.3% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, and 2.0% in 2027, while core inflation also neared the 2% target.
- Although domestic inflation remains elevated due to delayed wage and price adjustments, wage growth is moderating.
- Economic growth forecasts were revised downward to 0.9% for 2025 and 1.2% for 2026, reflecting weak exports and investment.
- The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
- The ECB remains data-dependent and will adjust its policy as needed to ensure inflation stabilizes around its 2% medium-term target without committing to a specific rate path.
- The next meeting is on 17 April 2025.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
The Swiss Franc (CHF)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from CHF today?
With no major news events, USD/CHF is expected to trade within a technical range, driven by overall market sentiment and U.S. dollar movements. The pair remains in a bullish trend within an ascending channel on the H4 timeframe, supported by the Ichimoku cloud.
Key Levels on the H4 Timeframe:
Support: Immediate support lies at 0.8747.. A break below could expose the pair to further downside toward 0.8611
Resistance: The pair faces resistance at 0.9000, which aligns with the psychological level and the upper boundary of the ascending channel. A breach above this level could push USD/CHF toward 0.9068.
Central Bank Notes:
- The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 50 basis points, going from 1.00% to 0.50% on 12 December, marking the fourth consecutive reduction.
- Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased again this quarter.
- Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected as it decreased from 1.1% in August to 0.7% in November; both goods and services contributed to this decline.
- In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is below that of September: 1.1% for 2024, 0.3% for 2025 and 0.8% for 2026, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 0.5% over the entire forecast horizon.
- GDP growth in Switzerland was only modest in the third quarter of 2024 with growth in the services sector again somewhat stronger, while value added in manufacturing declined.
- There was a further slight increase in unemployment, and employment growth was subdued while the utilisation of overall production capacity was normal.
- The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1% this year while currently expecting growth of between 1.0% and 1.5% for 2025.
- The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
- The next meeting is on 20 March 2025.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The Pound (GBP)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from GBP today?
With no major news events, GBP/USD is expected to trade within a technical range, driven by overall market sentiment and U.S. dollar movements. The pair remains in a bullish trend within an ascending channel on the H4 timeframe, supported by recent price action.
Key Levels on the H4 Timeframe:
Support: Immediate support lies at 1.2810, aligning with the lower boundary of the ascending channel. A break below could expose the pair to further downside toward 1.2682
Resistance: The pair faces resistance at 1.2937, which coincides with recent highs. A breach above this level could push GBP/USD toward the psychological level of 1.3000.
Central Bank Notes:
- The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 7 to 2 to reduce the Bank Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to bring it down to 4.50% on 6 February 2025, while two members preferred to reduce it by 50 bps.
- The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
- CPI inflation was 2.5% in 2024 Q4 as domestic inflationary pressures moderated but remained somewhat elevated while some indicators eased more slowly than expected. Higher global energy costs and regulated price changes are expected to push up headline CPI inflation to 3.7% in 2025 Q3, even as underlying domestic inflationary pressures are expected to wane further.
- While CPI inflation is expected to fall back to around the 2% target thereafter, the Committee will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures.
- GDP growth has been weaker than expected at the time of the November Monetary Policy Report, and indicators of business and consumer confidence have declined – GDP growth is expected to pick up from the middle of this year.
- The labour market has continued to ease and is judged to be broadly in balance. Productivity growth has been weaker than previously estimated, and the Committee judges that growth in the supply capacity of the economy has weakened.
- Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
- Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
- The next meeting is on 8 May 2025.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
The Canadian Dollar (CAD)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from CAD today?
With no major news events, USD/CAD is expected to trade within a technical range, driven by overall market sentiment and movements in crude oil prices, which heavily influence the Canadian dollar. On the H4 timeframe, the pair remains in a consolidation phase.
Key Levels on the H4 Timeframe:
Support: Immediate support lies at 1.4240, A break below this level could expose the pair to further downside toward 1.4175.
Resistance: Resistance is located at 1.4514. A breakout above this level could push USD/CAD toward 1.4752
Central Bank Notes:
- The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points bringing it down to 2.75% on 12 March; this marked the seventh consecutive meeting where rates were reduced.
- The bank announced its plan to complete the normalization of its balance sheet, ending quantitative tightening, and will restart asset purchases in early March, beginning gradually so that its balance sheet stabilizes and then grows modestly, in line with growth in the economy.
- The Governing Council noted that the economy grew more than expected in the fourth quarter of last year, spurred by past rate cuts but growth is now expected to slow at the turn of the year due to increasing trade conflict with the United States.
- Employment growth strengthened in November through January and the unemployment rate declined to 6.6%. In February, job growth stalled. While past interest rate cuts have boosted demand for labour in recent months, there are warning signs that heightened trade tensions could disrupt the recovery in the jobs market. Meanwhile, wage growth has shown signs of moderation.
- Inflation remains close to the 2% target. The temporary suspension of the GST/HST lowered some consumer prices, but January’s CPI was slightly firmer than expected at 1.9%. Inflation is expected to increase to about 2½% in March with the end of the tax break. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation remain above 2%, mainly because of the persistence of shelter price inflation. Short-term inflation expectations have risen in light of fears about the impact of tariffs on prices.
- While economic growth has come in stronger than expected, the pervasive uncertainty created by continuously changing U.S. tariff threats is restraining consumers’ spending intentions and businesses’ plans to hire and invest.
- While monetary policy cannot offset the impacts of a trade war, the Governing Council will carefully assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs.
- The Council will also be closely monitoring inflation expectations and is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.
- The next meeting is on 16 April 2025.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
Oil
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from Oil today?
With no major news events scheduled, WTI crude oil is expected to trade within a technical range, influenced by overall market sentiment and recent price action. On the H4 timeframe, the pair remains in a bearish trend, having declined from recent highs.
Key Levels on the H4 Timeframe:
Support: Immediate support lies at $66.44, aligning with recent lows. A break below could expose the pair to further downside toward $65.50
Resistance: The pair faces resistance at $68.92. A breach above this level could push WTI crude oil toward $71.30
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
