IC Trading Europe Fundamental Forecast | 16 August 2024
What happened in the Asia session?
During her testimony before the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics in Canberra, RBA Governor Michele Bullock dashed hopes of a potential rate cut in Australia by declaring that it is too premature to consider such a policy action while also flagging China’s slowdown as a major risk given Australia’s reliance on iron ore exports to the world’s second largest economy.
Governor Bullock’s concerns on the stubbornly sticky inflation levels is preventing her and her fellow policymakers from projecting any future rate cuts. The RBA’s cash rate target currently stands at 4.35% while headline CPI accelerated from 3.6% in the first quarter of this year to 3.8% YoY in the second quarter – well above the RBA’s inflation target band of 2 to 3%. The Aussie was trading around 0.6630 by Asia midday and should remain elevated as the final trading day of the week comes to a close.
What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?
Retail sales in the UK have been pretty weak over the past seven months as consumer spending declined 1.2% MoM in June. However, July’s estimate of 0.6% points to a decent rebound in sales. Should the final print beat market expectations, it could function as a potential bullish catalyst for the Pound.
Should we see another round of better-than-expected macroeconomic data, the dollar could see strong bids once more later today as building permits and the preliminary findings from the University of Michigan’s (UoM) Consumer Sentiment survey are due for release.
The Dollar Index (DXY)
Key news events today
Building Permits (12:30 pm GMT)
UoM Consumer Sentiment (2:00 pm GMT)
What can we expect from DXY today?
Building permits – a leading indicator for the residential construction sector – rebounded in June rising 3.9% MoM to register 1.45M new permits. The residential construction sector was beginning to look ‘soft’ as permits declined for three consecutive months from March through May, dropping as low as 1.4M in May which was the lowest level since December 2022. Permits are expected to rise 1.43M in July to signal some stabilization for this sector.
Meanwhile, the preliminary findings from the University of Michigan’s (UoM) Consumer Sentiment survey are expected to show sentiment remaining relatively unchanged in August with a reading of 66.7. Consumer confidence has moderated lower after its high of 79.4 in March as Americans remain guarded about their outlook. Should markets receive an overall positive outcome from the above macroeconomic data, it could provide some much-needed support for the dollar later today.
Central Bank Notes:
- The Federal Funds Rate target range remained unchanged at 5.25% to 5.50% for the eighth meeting in a row.
- The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals continue to move into better balance.
- The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
- Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while job gains have moderated, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low.
- In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks and does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%.
- In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals.
- In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities. Beginning in June, the Committee slowed the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $60 billion to $25 billion.
- The Committee will maintain the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35 billion and will reinvest any principal payments in excess of this cap into Treasury securities.
- Next meeting runs from 17 to 18 September 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
Gold (XAU)
Key news events today
Building Permits (12:30 pm GMT)
UoM Consumer Sentiment (2:00 pm GMT)
What can we expect from Gold today?
Building permits – a leading indicator for the residential construction sector – rebounded in June rising 3.9% MoM to register 1.45M new permits. The residential construction sector was beginning to look ‘soft’ as permits declined for three consecutive months from March through May, dropping as low as 1.4M in May which was the lowest level since December 2022. Permits are expected to rise 1.43M in July to signal some stabilization for this sector.
Meanwhile, the preliminary findings from the University of Michigan’s (UoM) Consumer Sentiment survey are expected to show sentiment remaining relatively unchanged in August with a reading of 66.7. Consumer confidence has moderated lower after its high of 79.4 in March as Americans remain guarded about their outlook. Should markets receive an overall positive outcome from the above macroeconomic data, it could provide some much-needed support for the dollar and potentially cap the recent gains in gold later today.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The Australian Dollar (AUD)
Key news events today
RBA Gov Bullock Speaks (11:30 pm GMT 15th August)
What can we expect from AUD today?
During her testimony before the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics in Canberra, RBA Governor Michele Bullock dashed hopes of a potential rate cut in Australia by declaring that it is too premature to consider such a policy action while also flagging China’s slowdown as a major risk given Australia’s reliance on iron ore exports to the world’s second largest economy.
Governor Bullock’s concerns on the stubbornly sticky inflation levels is preventing her and her fellow policymakers from projecting any future rate cuts. The RBA’s cash rate target currently stands at 4.35% while headline CPI accelerated from 3.6% in the first quarter of this year to 3.8% YoY in the second quarter – well above the RBA’s inflation target band of 2 to 3%. The Aussie was trading around 0.6630 by Asia midday and should remain elevated as the final trading day of the week comes to a close.
Central Bank Notes:
- The RBA kept the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35%, marking the sixth consecutive pause.
- Inflation has fallen substantially since its peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance but it still remains above the midpoint of the 2 to 3% target range.
- The CPI rose by 3.9% over the year to the June quarter, demonstrating that inflation is proving persistent. In year-ended terms, underlying inflation has now been above the midpoint of the target for 11 consecutive quarters while quarterly underlying CPI inflation has fallen very little over the past year.
- The central forecasts set out in the latest SMP are for inflation to return to the target range of 2 to 3% in late 2025 and approach the midpoint in 2026. This represents a slightly slower return to target than forecast in May, based on estimates that the gap between aggregate demand and supply in the economy is larger than previously thought.
- Momentum in economic activity has been weak, as evidenced by slow growth in GDP, a rise in the unemployment rate and reports that many businesses are under pressure. In addition, there is a risk that household consumption picks up more slowly than expected, resulting in continued subdued output growth and a noticeable deterioration in the labour market.
- Inflation in underlying terms remains too high, and the latest projections show that it will be some time yet before inflation is sustainably in the target range while recent data have reinforced the need to remain vigilant to upside risks to inflation and the Board is not ruling anything in or out.
- Policy will need to be sufficiently restrictive until the Board is confident that inflation is moving sustainably towards the target range and will rely upon the incoming data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions.
- Next meeting is on 5 November 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish
The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)
Key news events today
RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks (2:30 am GMT)
What can we expect from NZD today?
RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr will be speaking about monetary policy at an event hosted by the Wellington Chamber of Commerce where audience questions are expected. Following Wednesday’s surprise rate cut, Governor Orr could provide further insight into the outlook for future monetary policy action which could inject higher volatility for the Kiwi this morning.
Central Bank Notes:
- The Monetary Policy Committee agreed to reduce the OCR by 25 basis points, bringing it down to 5.25% in August as inflation converges on target.
- The Committee is confident that inflation is returning to within its 1-3% target band as surveyed inflation expectations, firms’ pricing behaviour, headline inflation, and a variety of core inflation measures are moving consistent with low and stable inflation.
- Economic growth remains below trend and inflation is declining across advanced economies – imported inflation into New Zealand has declined to be more consistent with pre-pandemic levels.
- Services inflation remains elevated but is also expected to continue to decline, both at home and abroad, in line with increased spare economic capacity.
- Consumer price inflation in New Zealand is expected to remain near the target mid-point over the foreseeable future.
- A broad range of high-frequency indicators point to a material weakening in domestic economic activity in recent months – these include various survey measures of business activity, electronic card transactions, vehicle traffic, house sales, filled jobs, and job vacancies; these indicators collectively provide a consistent signal that the economy contracted in recent months.
- The pace of further easing will depend on the Committee’s confidence that pricing behaviour remains consistent with a low inflation environment, and that inflation expectations are anchored around the 2% target.
- Next meeting is on 9 October 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish
The Japanese Yen (JPY)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from JPY today?
Better-than-expected macroeconomic data out of the U.S. lifted USD/JPY overnight as it broke above the 149-level. However, this currency pair pulled back and was trading around 148.90 as Asian markets came online – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 145.55
Resistance: 150.90
Central Bank Notes:
- The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided, by a 7-2 majority vote, to set the following guideline for money market operations for the intermeeting period and decided on the following measures:
- The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.25% while reducing its purchase amount of Japanese government bonds (JGB) by a unanimous vote.
- The Bank decided, by a unanimous vote, on a plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs so that it will be about 3 trillion yen in January-March 2026; the amount will be cut down by about 400 billion yen each calendar quarter in principle.
- The year-on-year rate of increase in the CPI (all items less fresh food) is likely to be at around 2.5% for fiscal 2024 and then be at around 2% for fiscal 2025 and 2026.
- Meanwhile, underlying CPI inflation is expected to increase gradually, since it is projected that the output gap will improve and that medium- to long-term inflation expectations will rise with a virtuous cycle between wages and prices continuing to intensify.
- In the second half of the projection period, it is likely to be at a level that is generally consistent with the price stability target of 2%.
- Japan’s economy is likely to keep growing at a pace above its potential growth rate, with overseas economies continuing to grow moderately and as a virtuous cycle from income to spending gradually intensifies against the background of factors such as accommodative financial conditions.
- Next meeting is on 20 September 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
The Euro (EUR)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from EUR today?
Better-than-expected macroeconomic data out of the U.S. sent the Euro tumbling under 1.0950 overnight. This currency pair retraced higher and was trading around 1.0980 at the beginning of the Asia session – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 1.0940
Resistance: 1.1020
Central Bank Notes:
- The Governing Council today decided to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged in July, following a 25 basis points cut in June.
- Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 4.25%, 4.50% and 3.75% respectively.
- Monetary policy is keeping financing conditions restrictive but at the same time, domestic price pressures are still high, services inflation is elevated and headline inflation is likely to remain above the target well into next year.
- While some measures of underlying inflation ticked up in May owing to one-off factors, most measures were either stable or edged down in June.
- The incoming information indicates that the euro area economy grew in the second quarter, but likely at a slower pace than in the first quarter.
- Services continue to lead the recovery, while industrial production and goods exports have been weak – investment indicators point to muted growth in 2024, amid heightened uncertainty.
- The Eurosystem no longer reinvests all of the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP), reducing the PEPP portfolio by €7.5 billion per month on average and the Governing Council intends to discontinue reinvestments under the PEPP at the end of 2024.
- The Council is determined to ensure that inflation returns to its 2% medium-term target in a timely manner and will keep policy rates sufficiently restrictive for as long as necessary to achieve this aim and is not pre-committing to a particular rate path.
- Next meeting is on 12 September 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish
The Swiss Franc (CHF)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from CHF today?
Following the release of better-than-anticipated macroeconomic data out of the U.S., USD/CHF broke above the 0.8700-level to hit an overnight high of 0.8748. However, this currency pair retreated away from this level and was trading around 0.8710 as Asian markets came online – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 0.8630
Resistance: 0.8800
Central Bank Notes:
- The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 25 basis points for the second consecutive meeting, going from 1.50% to 1.25% in June.
- The underlying inflationary pressure has decreased again compared to the previous quarter but inflation had risen slightly since the last monetary policy assessment, and stood at 1.4% in May.
- The inflation forecast puts average annual inflation at 1.3% for 2024, 1.1% for 2025 and 1.0% for 2026, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 1.25% over the entire forecast horizon.
- Swiss GDP growth was moderate in the first quarter of 2024 with the services sector continuing to expand, while manufacturing stagnated.
- Growth is likely to remain moderate in Switzerland in the coming quarters as the SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1% this year while currently expecting growth of around 1.5% for 2025.
- Next meeting is on 26 September 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
The Pound (GBP)
Key news events today
Retail Sales (6:00 am GMT)
What can we expect from GBP today?
Retail sales in the UK have been pretty weak over the past seven months as consumer spending declined 1.2% MoM in June. However, July’s estimate of 0.6% points to a decent rebound in sales. Should the final print beat market expectations, it could function as a potential bullish catalyst for the Pound.
Central Bank Notes:
- The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 5-to-4 to reduce its Official Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 5.00% on 1st August 2024.
- Five members preferred to reduce the Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 5%, an increase of two from the previous meeting while four members preferred to maintain the Bank Rate at 5.25%.
- Twelve-month CPI inflation was at the MPC’s 2% target in both May and June but it is expected to increase to around 2.75% in the second half of this year as declines in energy prices last year fall out of the annual comparison, revealing more clearly the prevailing persistence of domestic inflationary pressures. Private sector regular average weekly earnings growth has fallen to 5.6% in the three months to May, and services consumer price inflation has declined to 5.7% in June.
- GDP has picked up quite sharply so far this year, but underlying momentum appears weaker. GDP had grown by 0.7% in 2024 Q1, with that strength appearing to have continued into Q2. Growth in the first half of the year had been stronger than expected at the time of the May Report.
- Business surveys had continued to point to underlying growth of around 0.3% per quarter, somewhat weaker than headline GDP growth. A margin of slack should emerge in the economy as GDP falls below potential and the labour market eases further.
- The Committee noted that it is now appropriate to reduce slightly the degree of policy restrictiveness but monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further.
- The Committee continues to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
- Next meeting is on 19 September 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish
The Canadian Dollar (CAD)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from CAD today?
Demand for the Loonie was mixed as USD/CAD swung widely between 1.3740 and 1.3695 overnight. This currency pair was trading around 1.3725 at the beginning of the Asia session – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 1.3700
Resistance: 1.3760
Central Bank Notes:
- The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 4.50% while continuing its policy of balance sheet normalization.
- Canada’s economic growth likely picked up to about 1.5% through the first half of this year and is forecasted to increase in the second half of 2024 and through 2025.
- Overall, the Bank forecasts GDP growth of 1.2% in 2024, 2.1% in 2025, and 2.4% in 2026, reflecting stronger exports and a recovery in household spending and business investment as borrowing costs ease.
- CPI inflation moderated to 2.7% in June after increasing in May as broad inflationary pressures eased.
- The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation have been below 3% for several months and the breadth of price increases across components of the CPI is now near its historical norm but shelter price inflation remains high, driven by rent and mortgage interest costs, and is still the biggest contributor to total inflation.
- These preferred measures of core inflation are expected to slow to about 2.5% in the second half of 2024 and ease gradually through 2025 and CPI inflation is expected to come down below core inflation in the second half of this year, largely because of base year effects on gasoline prices.
- There are signs of slack in the labour market with the unemployment rate rising to 6.4%, as employment continues to grow more slowly than the labour force and job seekers taking longer to find work. Wage growth is showing some signs of moderation, but remains elevated.
- The Governing Council’s future monetary policy decisions will be guided by incoming information and assessment of their implications for the inflation outlook.
- Recent data has increased the council’s confidence that inflation will continue to move towards the 2% target. Nonetheless, risks to the inflation outlook remain.
- Next meeting is on 4 September 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
Oil
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from Oil today?
Following yesterday’s better-than-anticipated macroeconomic data out of China, prices for crude oil stabilized and proceeded to climb higher. WTI oil reversed off its lows of $77 per barrel and climbed above $78.50 overnight. This benchmark was trading around $78 per barrel as Asian markets came online.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
