IC Trading Europe Fundamental Forecast | 18 September 2024
What happened in the Asia session?
The dollar index (DXY) was relatively unchanged as it hovered around 100.80 by Asia midday and markets could tread cautiously for most parts of today before springing into high gear as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell takes centre stage later on. Prior to that, inflation data for the Euro Area and the U.K. is also scheduled to be released and higher volatility could be expected for these currencies too.
What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?
The final CPI reading for the month of August is expected to show headline CPI ease to 2.2% YoY while the core reading moderates to 2.8% YoY. Inflationary pressures have dissipated strongly in the Euro Area over the past 12 months and another round of cooler prices could limit the Euro’s recent gains in the interim.
Inflation in the U.K. has moderated significantly lower in 2024 as headline and core CPI both slowed to 2.2% and 3.3% respectively YoY in July. However, the estimate for August points to an unchanged reading of 2.2% for headline CPI and suggests a temporary stall in progress towards the Bank of England’s target of 2%. Should inflationary pressures pick up unexpectedly, it could boost the Cable before the start of the European trading session.
The Dollar Index (DXY)
Key news events today
FOMC Statement (6:00 pm GMT)
FOMC Press Conference (6:30 pm GMT)
What can we expect from DXY today?
After beginning its rate hike cycle in March of 2022, the Federal Reserve is finally gearing up for its first interest rate cut since July of 2019. The Fed Funds rate currently stands at 5.25 to 5.5% and market estimates point to a 25-basis points (bps) cut. However, the CME FedWatch Tool has a target rate probability of 65% for a 50-bps cut as of 17th September. The market appears to be split on the size of this first cut and traders should proceed with caution as the countdown to the release of the statement inches closer while Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s subsequent press conference is bound to inject extreme volatility into the markets.
Central Bank Notes:
- The Federal Funds Rate target range remained unchanged at 5.25% to 5.50% for the eighth meeting in a row.
- The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals continue to move into better balance.
- The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
- Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while job gains have moderated, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low.
- In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks and does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%.
- In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals.
- In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities. Beginning in June, the Committee slowed the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $60 billion to $25 billion.
- The Committee will maintain the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35 billion and will reinvest any principal payments in excess of this cap into Treasury securities.
- Next meeting runs from 17 to 18 September 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
Gold (XAU)
Key news events today
FOMC Statement (6:00 pm GMT)
FOMC Press Conference (6:30 pm GMT)
What can we expect from Gold today?
After beginning its rate hike cycle in March of 2022, the Federal Reserve is finally gearing up for its first interest rate cut since July of 2019. The Fed Funds rate currently stands at 5.25 to 5.5% and market estimates point to a 25-basis points (bps) cut. However, the CME FedWatch Tool has a target rate probability of 65% for a 50-bps cut as of 17th September. The market appears to be split on the size of this first cut and traders should proceed with caution as the countdown to the release of the statement inches closer while Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s subsequent press conference is bound to inject extreme volatility into the markets.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The Australian Dollar (AUD)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from AUD today?
Despite somewhat uplifting sales data from the U.S. overnight, the Aussie remained elevated. This currency pair was trading around 0.6770 as Asian markets came online – this morning and these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 0.6650
Resistance: 0.6800
Central Bank Notes:
- The RBA kept the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35% on 6th August, marking the sixth consecutive pause.
- Inflation has fallen substantially since its peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance but it still remains above the midpoint of the 2 to 3% target range.
- The CPI rose by 3.9% over the year to the June quarter, demonstrating that inflation is proving persistent. In year-ended terms, underlying inflation has now been above the midpoint of the target for 11 consecutive quarters while quarterly underlying CPI inflation has fallen very little over the past year.
- The central forecasts set out in the latest SMP are for inflation to return to the target range of 2 to 3% in late 2025 and approach the midpoint in 2026. This represents a slightly slower return to target than forecast in May, based on estimates that the gap between aggregate demand and supply in the economy is larger than previously thought.
- Momentum in economic activity has been weak, as evidenced by slow growth in GDP, a rise in the unemployment rate and reports that many businesses are under pressure. In addition, there is a risk that household consumption picks up more slowly than expected, resulting in continued subdued output growth and a noticeable deterioration in the labour market.
- Inflation in underlying terms remains too high, and the latest projections show that it will be some time yet before inflation is sustainably in the target range while recent data have reinforced the need to remain vigilant to upside risks to inflation and the Board is not ruling anything in or out.
- Policy will need to be sufficiently restrictive until the Board is confident that inflation is moving sustainably towards the target range and will rely upon the incoming data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions.
- Next meeting is on 5 November 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish
The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from NZD today?
The Kiwi climbed above the 0.6200-level momentarily yesterday before retreating towards 0.6180 by the end of the U.S. session. This currency pair was rising once more towards 0.6200 at the beginning of the Asia session – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 0.6120
Resistance: 0.6235
Central Bank Notes:
- The Monetary Policy Committee agreed to reduce the OCR by 25 basis points, bringing it down to 5.25% in August as inflation converges on target.
- The Committee is confident that inflation is returning to within its 1-3% target band as surveyed inflation expectations, firms’ pricing behaviour, headline inflation, and a variety of core inflation measures are moving consistent with low and stable inflation.
- Economic growth remains below trend and inflation is declining across advanced economies – imported inflation into New Zealand has declined to be more consistent with pre-pandemic levels.
- Services inflation remains elevated but is also expected to continue to decline, both at home and abroad, in line with increased spare economic capacity.
- Consumer price inflation in New Zealand is expected to remain near the target mid-point over the foreseeable future.
- A broad range of high-frequency indicators point to a material weakening in domestic economic activity in recent months – these include various survey measures of business activity, electronic card transactions, vehicle traffic, house sales, filled jobs, and job vacancies; these indicators collectively provide a consistent signal that the economy contracted in recent months.
- The pace of further easing will depend on the Committee’s confidence that pricing behaviour remains consistent with a low inflation environment, and that inflation expectations are anchored around the 2% target.
- Next meeting is on 9 October 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish
The Japanese Yen (JPY)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from JPY today?
Higher demand for the greenback lifted USD/JPY overnight as it came within a whisker of 142.50. This currency pair dipped under 142 as Asian markets came online and could edge lower as the day progresses – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 139.80
Resistance: 143.70
Central Bank Notes:
- The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided, by a 7-2 majority vote, to set the following guideline for money market operations for the intermeeting period and decided on the following measures:
- The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.25% while reducing its purchase amount of Japanese government bonds (JGB) by a unanimous vote.
- The Bank decided, by a unanimous vote, on a plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs so that it will be about 3 trillion yen in January-March 2026; the amount will be cut down by about 400 billion yen each calendar quarter in principle.
- The year-on-year rate of increase in the CPI (all items less fresh food) is likely to be at around 2.5% for fiscal 2024 and then be at around 2% for fiscal 2025 and 2026.
- Meanwhile, underlying CPI inflation is expected to increase gradually, since it is projected that the output gap will improve and that medium- to long-term inflation expectations will rise with a virtuous cycle between wages and prices continuing to intensify.
- In the second half of the projection period, it is likely to be at a level that is generally consistent with the price stability target of 2%.
- Japan’s economy is likely to keep growing at a pace above its potential growth rate, with overseas economies continuing to grow moderately and as a virtuous cycle from income to spending gradually intensifies against the background of factors such as accommodative financial conditions.
- Next meeting is on 20 September 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
The Euro (EUR)
Key news events today
CPI (9:00 am GMT)
What can we expect from EUR today?
The final CPI reading for the month of August is expected to show headline CPI ease to 2.2% YoY while the core reading moderates to 2.8% YoY. Inflationary pressures have dissipated strongly in the Euro Area over the past 12 months and another round of cooler prices could limit the Euro’s recent gains in the interim.
Central Bank Notes:
- The Governing Council today decided to reduce the three key ECB interest rates on 12th September, after holding rates steady in July.
- Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 3.65%, 3.90% and 3.50% respectively.
- Recent inflation data have come in broadly as expected, and the latest ECB staff projections see headline inflation averaging 2.5% in 2024, 2.2% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026.
- For core inflation, the projections for 2024 and 2025 have been revised up slightly, as services inflation has been higher than expected. At the same time, staff continue to expect a rapid decline in core inflation, from 2.9% this year to 2.3% in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026.
- ECB staff projections forecast that the economy will grow by 0.8% in 2024, rising to 1.3% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026 which is a slight downward revision compared with the June projections, mainly owing to a weaker contribution from domestic demand over the next few quarters.
- The Eurosystem no longer reinvests all of the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP), reducing the PEPP portfolio by €7.5 billion per month on average and the Governing Council intends to discontinue reinvestments under the PEPP at the end of 2024.
- The Council is determined to ensure that inflation returns to its 2% medium-term target in a timely manner and will keep policy rates sufficiently restrictive for as long as necessary to achieve this aim and is not pre-committing to a particular rate path.
- Next meeting is on 17 October 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish
The Swiss Franc (CHF)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from CHF today?
With demand for the dollar picking up overnight, USD/CHF hit an overnight high of 0.8476. This currency pulled back towards 0.8450 as Asian markets came online and could edge lower as the day progresses – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 0.8400
Resistance: 0.8500
Central Bank Notes:
- The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 25 basis points for the second consecutive meeting, going from 1.50% to 1.25% in June.
- The underlying inflationary pressure has decreased again compared to the previous quarter but inflation had risen slightly since the last monetary policy assessment, and stood at 1.4% in May.
- The inflation forecast puts average annual inflation at 1.3% for 2024, 1.1% for 2025 and 1.0% for 2026, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 1.25% over the entire forecast horizon.
- Swiss GDP growth was moderate in the first quarter of 2024 with the services sector continuing to expand, while manufacturing stagnated.
- Growth is likely to remain moderate in Switzerland in the coming quarters as the SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1% this year while currently expecting growth of around 1.5% for 2025.
- Next meeting is on 26 September 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
The Pound (GBP)
Key news events today
CPI (6:00 am GMT)
What can we expect from GBP today?
Inflation in the U.K. has moderated significantly lower in 2024 as headline and core CPI both slowed to 2.2% and 3.3% respectively YoY in July. However, the estimate for August points to an unchanged reading of 2.2% for headline CPI and suggests a temporary stall in progress towards the Bank of England’s target of 2%. Should inflationary pressures pick up unexpectedly, it could boost the Cable before the start of the European trading session.
Central Bank Notes:
- The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 5-to-4 to reduce its Official Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 5.00% on 1st August 2024.
- Five members preferred to reduce the Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 5%, an increase of two from the previous meeting while four members preferred to maintain the Bank Rate at 5.25%.
- Twelve-month CPI inflation was at the MPC’s 2% target in both May and June but it is expected to increase to around 2.75% in the second half of this year as declines in energy prices last year fall out of the annual comparison, revealing more clearly the prevailing persistence of domestic inflationary pressures. Private sector regular average weekly earnings growth has fallen to 5.6% in the three months to May, and services consumer price inflation has declined to 5.7% in June.
- GDP has picked up quite sharply so far this year, but underlying momentum appears weaker. GDP had grown by 0.7% in 2024 Q1, with that strength appearing to have continued into Q2. Growth in the first half of the year had been stronger than expected at the time of the May Report.
- Business surveys had continued to point to underlying growth of around 0.3% per quarter, somewhat weaker than headline GDP growth. A margin of slack should emerge in the economy as GDP falls below potential and the labour market eases further.
- The Committee noted that it is now appropriate to reduce slightly the degree of policy restrictiveness but monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further.
- The Committee continues to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
- Next meeting is on 19 September 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The Canadian Dollar (CAD)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from CAD today?
Demand for the Loonie has waned since the beginning of September causing USD/CAD to retrace higher and reach the threshold of 1.3600. This currency pair was floating around 1.3580 at the beginning of the Asia session – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 1.3500
Resistance: 1.3630
Central Bank Notes:
- The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points for the third consecutive meeting to 4.25% while continuing its policy of balance sheet normalization on 4th September.
- Canada’s economy grew 2.1% in the second quarter of 2024, led by government spending and business investment.
- This second quarter GDP growth was slightly stronger than forecast in July, but preliminary indicators suggest that economic activity was soft through June and July.
- As expected, inflation slowed further to 2.5% in July. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation averaged around 2.5% and the share of components of the consumer price index growing above 3% is roughly at its historical norm.
- High shelter price inflation is still the biggest contributor to total inflation but is starting to slow while inflation also remains elevated in some other services.
- The labour market continues to slow, with little change in employment in recent months. Wage growth, however, remains elevated relative to productivity.
- The Governing Council is carefully assessing these opposing forces on inflation and monetary policy decisions will be guided by incoming information and our assessment of their implications for the inflation outlook.
- The Bank remains resolute in its commitment to restoring price stability for Canadians.
- Next meeting is on 23 October 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
Oil
Key news events today
EIA Crude Oil Inventories (2:30 pm GMT)
What can we expect from Oil today?
After declining for three consecutive weeks, the API stockpiles surprised markets with a build of 1.96M barrels of crude oil. However, this latest inventory update did not prevent prices from climbing higher. WTI oil rose within a whisker of $72 per barrel as geo-political tensions in the Middle East escalated on Tuesday. However, this benchmark tumbled under $70 as Asian markets came online but higher volatility for this commodity continues to prevail.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
