IC Trading Europe Fundamental Forecast | 30 August 2024
What happened in the Asia session?
Core CPI in Tokyo unexpectedly jumped higher to increase 2.4% YoY in August, exceeding markets forecasts of a 2.2% rise, to mark the fourth consecutive month of accelerating prices. The latest reading was also the highest in six months and will reinforce the Bank of Japan’s hawkish outlook on future monetary policy actions. The yen strengthened following this news release as USD/JPY reversed from 145 to fall and dropped as low as 144.65.
Retail sales in Australia came in flat in July, missing market expectations of a 0.3% monthly rise. Poor sales were mainly attributed to categories such as clothing, footwear & personal accessory; cafes, restaurants, and takeaway food; and department stores; all of which declined. The Aussie suffered a minor knee-jerk reaction and dropped from 0.6800 to 0.6789 but it recovered swiftly to climb above the threshold of 0.6800 once again by Asia midday.
What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?
The flash CPI for the month of August is expected to show prices rising at a slower rate, especially for the headline figure. Headline CPI is expected to ease significantly from 2.6% in July down to 2.2% YoY while the core is expected to edge lower from 2.9% to 2.8% YoY. Should the flash readings indicate a much higher pace of disinflation, we could see the Euro come under pressure during the European trading hours.
After growing 0.3% and 0.2% MoM in April and May respectively, Canada’s economy is anticipated to rise marginally in July to increase just 0.1% MoM. Economic output appears to be stalling and a weaker reading will likely function as a headwind for the Loonie during the U.S. session – a result that could aid USD/CAD in finding a near-term floor.
The Dollar Index (DXY)
Key news events today
PCE Price Index (12:30 pm GMT)
What can we expect from DXY today?
The PCE Price Index – which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation – has moderated lower since April on an annualised basis with headline and core PCE easing to 2.5% and 2.6% respectively YoY in June. Since headline and core CPI both eased further in July, we can also expect a similar result for July’s PCE price index. Further dissipation of inflationary pressures is likely to weigh on the dollar during the U.S. session.
Central Bank Notes:
- The Federal Funds Rate target range remained unchanged at 5.25% to 5.50% for the eighth meeting in a row.
- The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals continue to move into better balance.
- The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
- Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while job gains have moderated, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low.
- In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks and does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%.
- In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals.
- In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities. Beginning in June, the Committee slowed the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $60 billion to $25 billion.
- The Committee will maintain the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35 billion and will reinvest any principal payments in excess of this cap into Treasury securities.
- Next meeting runs from 17 to 18 September 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
Gold (XAU)
Key news events today
PCE Price Index (12:30 pm GMT)
What can we expect from Gold today?
The PCE Price Index – which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation – has moderated lower since April on an annualised basis with headline and core PCE easing to 2.5% and 2.6% respectively YoY in June. Since headline and core CPI both eased further in July, we can also expect a similar result for July’s PCE price index. Further dissipation of inflationary pressures is likely to weigh on the dollar and potentially lift gold prices during the U.S. session.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
The Australian Dollar (AUD)
Key news events today
Retail Sales (1:30 am GMT)
What can we expect from AUD today?
Retail sales in Australia came in flat in July, missing market expectations of a 0.3% monthly rise. Poor sales were mainly attributed to categories such as clothing, footwear & personal accessory; cafes, restaurants, and takeaway food; and department stores; all of which declined. The Aussie suffered a minor knee-jerk reaction and dropped from 0.6800 to 0.6789 but it recovered swiftly to climb above the threshold of 0.6800 once again by Asia midday.
Central Bank Notes:
- The RBA kept the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35%, marking the sixth consecutive pause.
- Inflation has fallen substantially since its peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance but it still remains above the midpoint of the 2 to 3% target range.
- The CPI rose by 3.9% over the year to the June quarter, demonstrating that inflation is proving persistent. In year-ended terms, underlying inflation has now been above the midpoint of the target for 11 consecutive quarters while quarterly underlying CPI inflation has fallen very little over the past year.
- The central forecasts set out in the latest SMP are for inflation to return to the target range of 2 to 3% in late 2025 and approach the midpoint in 2026. This represents a slightly slower return to target than forecast in May, based on estimates that the gap between aggregate demand and supply in the economy is larger than previously thought.
- Momentum in economic activity has been weak, as evidenced by slow growth in GDP, a rise in the unemployment rate and reports that many businesses are under pressure. In addition, there is a risk that household consumption picks up more slowly than expected, resulting in continued subdued output growth and a noticeable deterioration in the labour market.
- Inflation in underlying terms remains too high, and the latest projections show that it will be some time yet before inflation is sustainably in the target range while recent data have reinforced the need to remain vigilant to upside risks to inflation and the Board is not ruling anything in or out.
- Policy will need to be sufficiently restrictive until the Board is confident that inflation is moving sustainably towards the target range and will rely upon the incoming data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions.
- Next meeting is on 5 November 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from NZD today?
Despite stronger-than-anticipated U.S. macroeconomic data, the Kiwi was resilient overnight. This currency pair pulled back slightly before stabilizing around 0.6250 before climbing higher towards 0.6275 at the beginning of the Asia session – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 0.6200
Resistance: 0.6300
Central Bank Notes:
- The Monetary Policy Committee agreed to reduce the OCR by 25 basis points, bringing it down to 5.25% in August as inflation converges on target.
- The Committee is confident that inflation is returning to within its 1-3% target band as surveyed inflation expectations, firms’ pricing behaviour, headline inflation, and a variety of core inflation measures are moving consistent with low and stable inflation.
- Economic growth remains below trend and inflation is declining across advanced economies – imported inflation into New Zealand has declined to be more consistent with pre-pandemic levels.
- Services inflation remains elevated but is also expected to continue to decline, both at home and abroad, in line with increased spare economic capacity.
- Consumer price inflation in New Zealand is expected to remain near the target mid-point over the foreseeable future.
- A broad range of high-frequency indicators point to a material weakening in domestic economic activity in recent months – these include various survey measures of business activity, electronic card transactions, vehicle traffic, house sales, filled jobs, and job vacancies; these indicators collectively provide a consistent signal that the economy contracted in recent months.
- The pace of further easing will depend on the Committee’s confidence that pricing behaviour remains consistent with a low inflation environment, and that inflation expectations are anchored around the 2% target.
- Next meeting is on 9 October 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish
The Japanese Yen (JPY)
Key news events today
Tokyo Core CPI (11:30 pm GMT 29th August)
What can we expect from JPY today?
Core CPI in Tokyo unexpectedly jumped higher to increase 2.4% YoY in August, exceeding markets forecasts of a 2.2% rise, to mark the fourth consecutive month of accelerating prices. The latest reading was also the highest in six months and will reinforce the Bank of Japan’s hawkish outlook on future monetary policy actions. The yen strengthened following this news release as USD/JPY reversed from 145 to fall and dropped as low as 144.65.
Central Bank Notes:
- The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided, by a 7-2 majority vote, to set the following guideline for money market operations for the intermeeting period and decided on the following measures:
- The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.25% while reducing its purchase amount of Japanese government bonds (JGB) by a unanimous vote.
- The Bank decided, by a unanimous vote, on a plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs so that it will be about 3 trillion yen in January-March 2026; the amount will be cut down by about 400 billion yen each calendar quarter in principle.
- The year-on-year rate of increase in the CPI (all items less fresh food) is likely to be at around 2.5% for fiscal 2024 and then be at around 2% for fiscal 2025 and 2026.
- Meanwhile, underlying CPI inflation is expected to increase gradually, since it is projected that the output gap will improve and that medium- to long-term inflation expectations will rise with a virtuous cycle between wages and prices continuing to intensify.
- In the second half of the projection period, it is likely to be at a level that is generally consistent with the price stability target of 2%.
- Japan’s economy is likely to keep growing at a pace above its potential growth rate, with overseas economies continuing to grow moderately and as a virtuous cycle from income to spending gradually intensifies against the background of factors such as accommodative financial conditions.
- Next meeting is on 20 September 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The Euro (EUR)
Key news events today
CPI (9:00 am GMT)
What can we expect from EUR today?
The flash CPI for the month of August is expected to show prices rising at a slower rate, especially for the headline figure. Headline CPI is expected to ease significantly from 2.6% in July down to 2.2% YoY while the core is expected to edge lower from 2.9% to 2.8% YoY. Should the flash readings indicate a much higher pace of disinflation, we could see the Euro come under pressure during the European trading hours.
Central Bank Notes:
- The Governing Council today decided to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged in July, following a 25 basis points cut in June.
- Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 4.25%, 4.50% and 3.75% respectively.
- Monetary policy is keeping financing conditions restrictive but at the same time, domestic price pressures are still high, services inflation is elevated and headline inflation is likely to remain above the target well into next year.
- While some measures of underlying inflation ticked up in May owing to one-off factors, most measures were either stable or edged down in June.
- The incoming information indicates that the euro area economy grew in the second quarter, but likely at a slower pace than in the first quarter.
- Services continue to lead the recovery, while industrial production and goods exports have been weak – investment indicators point to muted growth in 2024, amid heightened uncertainty.
- The Eurosystem no longer reinvests all of the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP), reducing the PEPP portfolio by €7.5 billion per month on average and the Governing Council intends to discontinue reinvestments under the PEPP at the end of 2024.
- The Council is determined to ensure that inflation returns to its 2% medium-term target in a timely manner and will keep policy rates sufficiently restrictive for as long as necessary to achieve this aim and is not pre-committing to a particular rate path.
- Next meeting is on 12 September 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The Swiss Franc (CHF)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from CHF today?
Robust macroeconomic data from the U.S. lifted USD/CHF yesterday as it briefly hit 0.8493 before retreating towards 0.8460 by the end of the U.S. session. This currency pair was trading around 0.8470 as Asian markets came online and should grind higher as the day progresses- these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 0.8400
Resistance: 0.8550
Central Bank Notes:
- The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 25 basis points for the second consecutive meeting, going from 1.50% to 1.25% in June.
- The underlying inflationary pressure has decreased again compared to the previous quarter but inflation had risen slightly since the last monetary policy assessment, and stood at 1.4% in May.
- The inflation forecast puts average annual inflation at 1.3% for 2024, 1.1% for 2025 and 1.0% for 2026, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 1.25% over the entire forecast horizon.
- Swiss GDP growth was moderate in the first quarter of 2024 with the services sector continuing to expand, while manufacturing stagnated.
- Growth is likely to remain moderate in Switzerland in the coming quarters as the SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1% this year while currently expecting growth of around 1.5% for 2025.
- Next meeting is on 26 September 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish
The Pound (GBP)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from GBP today?
Stronger-than-anticipated U.S. macroeconomic data nudged Cable lower overnight as it hit a low of 1.3145. This currency pair stabilized around 1.3155 before edging higher as Asian markets came online – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 1.3085
Resistance: 1.3260
Central Bank Notes:
- The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 5-to-4 to reduce its Official Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 5.00% on 1st August 2024.
- Five members preferred to reduce the Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 5%, an increase of two from the previous meeting while four members preferred to maintain the Bank Rate at 5.25%.
- Twelve-month CPI inflation was at the MPC’s 2% target in both May and June but it is expected to increase to around 2.75% in the second half of this year as declines in energy prices last year fall out of the annual comparison, revealing more clearly the prevailing persistence of domestic inflationary pressures. Private sector regular average weekly earnings growth has fallen to 5.6% in the three months to May, and services consumer price inflation has declined to 5.7% in June.
- GDP has picked up quite sharply so far this year, but underlying momentum appears weaker. GDP had grown by 0.7% in 2024 Q1, with that strength appearing to have continued into Q2. Growth in the first half of the year had been stronger than expected at the time of the May Report.
- Business surveys had continued to point to underlying growth of around 0.3% per quarter, somewhat weaker than headline GDP growth. A margin of slack should emerge in the economy as GDP falls below potential and the labour market eases further.
- The Committee noted that it is now appropriate to reduce slightly the degree of policy restrictiveness but monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further.
- The Committee continues to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
- Next meeting is on 19 September 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
The Canadian Dollar (CAD)
Key news events today
GDP (12:30 pm GMT)
What can we expect from CAD today?
After growing 0.3% and 0.2% MoM in April and May respectively, Canada’s economy is anticipated to rise marginally in July to increase just 0.1% MoM. Economic output appears to be stalling and a weaker reading will likely function as a headwind for the Loonie during the U.S. session – a result that could aid USD/CAD in finding a near-term floor.
Central Bank Notes:
- The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 4.50% while continuing its policy of balance sheet normalization.
- Canada’s economic growth likely picked up to about 1.5% through the first half of this year and is forecasted to increase in the second half of 2024 and through 2025.
- Overall, the Bank forecasts GDP growth of 1.2% in 2024, 2.1% in 2025, and 2.4% in 2026, reflecting stronger exports and a recovery in household spending and business investment as borrowing costs ease.
- CPI inflation moderated to 2.7% in June after increasing in May as broad inflationary pressures eased.
- The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation have been below 3% for several months and the breadth of price increases across components of the CPI is now near its historical norm but shelter price inflation remains high, driven by rent and mortgage interest costs, and is still the biggest contributor to total inflation.
- These preferred measures of core inflation are expected to slow to about 2.5% in the second half of 2024 and ease gradually through 2025 and CPI inflation is expected to come down below core inflation in the second half of this year, largely because of base year effects on gasoline prices.
- There are signs of slack in the labour market with the unemployment rate rising to 6.4%, as employment continues to grow more slowly than the labour force and job seekers taking longer to find work. Wage growth is showing some signs of moderation, but remains elevated.
- The Governing Council’s future monetary policy decisions will be guided by incoming information and assessment of their implications for the inflation outlook.
- Recent data has increased the council’s confidence that inflation will continue to move towards the 2% target. Nonetheless, risks to the inflation outlook remain.
- Next meeting is on 4 September 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
Oil
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from Oil today?
Crude prices spiked overnight as supply concerns emanating from the Middle East, particularly in Libya, gained further traction. More than half of Libya’s oil production was offline yesterday while exports were halted at several ports due to a standoff between rival political groups in the country. After declining strongly on Tuesday and Wednesday, falling almost 3.8% over this period, WTI oil surged almost 1.6% on Thursday as it briefly jumped above $77.50 per barrel. This benchmark retreated away from this level to trade around $76.50 at the beginning of the Asia session but is expected to remain elevated to notch its first gain in three weeks.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish
