IC Trading Europe Fundamental Forecast | 6 August 2024
What happened in the Asia session?
As widely anticipated, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left the cash rate unchanged at 4.35%, concerned that inflation still remains above the 2 to 3% target range due to persistent service costs. Policymakers reiterated the need to stay vigilant to upside risks to inflation while not ruling anything in or out as it will rely on incoming data and concluded that policy will be sufficiently restrictive until inflation moves sustainably toward their target. In addition, there is substantial uncertainty around the economic outlook as evidenced by slow GDP growth, rising jobless rates, and intense pressure on many local businesses. The Aussie hovered above the 0.6500-level following the release of this statement.
What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?
Switzerland’s unemployment rate has edged higher in 2024, rising from 2.2% in January to 2.4% in June. With July’s estimate of 2.5% pointing to another month of increase, the Swiss central bank would be inclined to cut its key policy rate once more – a move that would weaken the franc and potentially lift USD/CHF.
Retail spending in the Euro Area has been mixed over the last seven months as monthly sales swing between gains and declines. The estimate of -0.2% shows sales contracting in June after edging higher 0.1% MoM in May. Should sales fall more than originally anticipated, the Euro could face selling pressures as European markets get under way.
After returning to expansion in March, the construction PMI hit a 12-month high of 54.7 in May before slowing to 52.2 in June. The estimate of 51.0 points to a fifth straight month of expansion in July but construction activity is clearly slowing. Should the result miss market estimates, the Pound could come under pressure before the start of the European trading hours.
The Dollar Index (DXY)
Key news events today
Trade Balance (12:30 pm GMT)
What can we expect from DXY today?
The U.S. trade deficit widened to $75.1B in May as exports fell 0.7% to $261.7B. June’s estimate shows the deficit narrowing to $72.5B and could potentially function as another catalyst to prop up the dollar later today.
Central Bank Notes:
- The Federal Funds Rate target range remained unchanged at 5.25% to 5.50% for the eighth meeting in a row.
- The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals continue to move into better balance.
- The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
- Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while job gains have moderated, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low.
- In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks and does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%.
- In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals.
- In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities. Beginning in June, the Committee slowed the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $60 billion to $25 billion.
- The Committee will maintain the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35 billion and will reinvest any principal payments in excess of this cap into Treasury securities.
- Next meeting runs from 17 to 18 September 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
Gold (XAU)
Key news events today
Trade Balance (12:30 pm GMT)
What can we expect from Gold today?
The U.S. trade deficit widened to $75.1B in May as exports fell 0.7% to $261.7B. June’s estimate shows the deficit narrowing to $72.5B and could potentially function as another catalyst to prop up the dollar later today – a result that could limit the recent gains for this precious metal.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The Australian Dollar (AUD)
Key news events today
RBA Monetary Policy Statement (4:30 am GMT)
RBA Press Conference (5:30 am GMT)
What can we expect from AUD today?
As widely anticipated, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left the cash rate unchanged at 4.35%, concerned that inflation still remains above the 2 to 3% target range due to persistent service costs. Policymakers reiterated the need to stay vigilant to upside risks to inflation while not ruling anything in or out as it will rely on incoming data and concluded that policy will be sufficiently restrictive until inflation moves sustainably toward their target. In addition, there is substantial uncertainty around the economic outlook as evidenced by slow GDP growth, rising jobless rates, and intense pressure on many local businesses. The Aussie hovered above the 0.6500-level following the release of this statement.
Central Bank Notes:
- The RBA kept the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35%, marking the sixth consecutive pause.
- Inflation has fallen substantially since its peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance but it still remains above the midpoint of the 2 to 3% target range.
- The CPI rose by 3.9% over the year to the June quarter, demonstrating that inflation is proving persistent. In year-ended terms, underlying inflation has now been above the midpoint of the target for 11 consecutive quarters while quarterly underlying CPI inflation has fallen very little over the past year.
- The central forecasts set out in the latest SMP are for inflation to return to the target range of 2 to 3% in late 2025 and approach the midpoint in 2026. This represents a slightly slower return to target than forecast in May, based on estimates that the gap between aggregate demand and supply in the economy is larger than previously thought.
- Momentum in economic activity has been weak, as evidenced by slow growth in GDP, a rise in the unemployment rate and reports that many businesses are under pressure. In addition, there is a risk that household consumption picks up more slowly than expected, resulting in continued subdued output growth and a noticeable deterioration in the labour market.
- Inflation in underlying terms remains too high, and the latest projections show that it will be some time yet before inflation is sustainably in the target range while recent data have reinforced the need to remain vigilant to upside risks to inflation and the Board is not ruling anything in or out.
- Policy will need to be sufficiently restrictive until the Board is confident that inflation is moving sustainably towards the target range and will rely upon the incoming data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions.
- Next meeting is on 5 November 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from NZD today?
With demand for the dollar waning yesterday, the Kiwi bounced off its lows at 0.5850 to climb above 0.5950. This currency pair was trading around 0.5970 at the beginning of the Asia session – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 0.5870
Resistance: 0.6000
Central Bank Notes:
- The Monetary Policy Committee kept the OCR unchanged at 5.50% for the eighth meeting in a row and agreed that restrictive monetary policy is reducing domestic demand and consumer price inflation.
- The Committee is confident that inflation will return to within its 1-3% target range over the second half of 2024.
- The decline in inflation reflects receding domestic pricing pressures, as well as lower inflation for goods and services imported into New Zealand while recent monthly Selected Price Indexes suggest weakening in some of the more volatile inflation components, while survey measures of cost pressures and pricing intentions have continued to decline.
- Non-performing bank loans and corporate insolvencies have increased from low levels in line with declining economic activity while bank credit growth also remains very subdued, in line with weakness in the domestic economy and low business and consumer confidence.
- Next meeting is on 14 August 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish
The Japanese Yen (JPY)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from JPY today?
The yen strengthened sharply yesterday as USD/JPY dived as low as 141.69 before stabilizing around this level to retrace higher. This currency pair rose above the 145-level as Asian markets came online – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 140.90
Resistance: 146.30
Central Bank Notes:
- The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided, by a 7-2 majority vote, to set the following guideline for money market operations for the intermeeting period and decided on the following measures:
- The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.25% while reducing its purchase amount of Japanese government bonds (JGB) by a unanimous vote.
- The Bank decided, by a unanimous vote, on a plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs so that it will be about 3 trillion yen in January-March 2026; the amount will be cut down by about 400 billion yen each calendar quarter in principle.
- The year-on-year rate of increase in the CPI (all items less fresh food) is likely to be at around 2.5% for fiscal 2024 and then be at around 2% for fiscal 2025 and 2026.
- Meanwhile, underlying CPI inflation is expected to increase gradually, since it is projected that the output gap will improve and that medium- to long-term inflation expectations will rise with a virtuous cycle between wages and prices continuing to intensify.
- In the second half of the projection period, it is likely to be at a level that is generally consistent with the price stability target of 2%.
- Japan’s economy is likely to keep growing at a pace above its potential growth rate, with overseas economies continuing to grow moderately and as a virtuous cycle from income to spending gradually intensifies against the background of factors such as accommodative financial conditions.
- Next meeting is on 20 September 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The Euro (EUR)
Key news events today
Retail Sales (9:00 am GMT)
What can we expect from EUR today?
Retail spending in the Euro Area has been mixed over the last seven months as monthly sales swing between gains and declines. The estimate of -0.2% shows sales contracting in June after edging higher 0.1% MoM in May. Should sales fall more than originally anticipated, the Euro could face selling pressures as European markets get under way.
Central Bank Notes:
- The Governing Council today decided to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged in July, following a 25 basis points cut in June.
- Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 4.25%, 4.50% and 3.75% respectively.
- Monetary policy is keeping financing conditions restrictive but at the same time, domestic price pressures are still high, services inflation is elevated and headline inflation is likely to remain above the target well into next year.
- While some measures of underlying inflation ticked up in May owing to one-off factors, most measures were either stable or edged down in June.
- The incoming information indicates that the euro area economy grew in the second quarter, but likely at a slower pace than in the first quarter.
- Services continue to lead the recovery, while industrial production and goods exports have been weak – investment indicators point to muted growth in 2024, amid heightened uncertainty.
- The Eurosystem no longer reinvests all of the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP), reducing the PEPP portfolio by €7.5 billion per month on average and the Governing Council intends to discontinue reinvestments under the PEPP at the end of 2024.
- The Council is determined to ensure that inflation returns to its 2% medium-term target in a timely manner and will keep policy rates sufficiently restrictive for as long as necessary to achieve this aim and is not pre-committing to a particular rate path.
- Next meeting is on 12 September 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish
The Swiss Franc (CHF)
Key news events today
Unemployment Rate (5:45 am GMT)
What can we expect from CHF today?
Switzerland’s unemployment rate has edged higher in 2024, rising from 2.2% in January to 2.4% in June. With July’s estimate of 2.5% pointing to another month of increase, the Swiss central bank would be inclined to cut its key policy rate once more – a move that would weaken the franc and potentially lift USD/CHF.
Central Bank Notes:
- The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 25 basis points for the second consecutive meeting, going from 1.50% to 1.25% in June.
- The underlying inflationary pressure has decreased again compared to the previous quarter but inflation had risen slightly since the last monetary policy assessment, and stood at 1.4% in May.
- The inflation forecast puts average annual inflation at 1.3% for 2024, 1.1% for 2025 and 1.0% for 2026, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 1.25% over the entire forecast horizon.
- Swiss GDP growth was moderate in the first quarter of 2024 with the services sector continuing to expand, while manufacturing stagnated.
- Growth is likely to remain moderate in Switzerland in the coming quarters as the SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1% this year while currently expecting growth of around 1.5% for 2025.
- Next meeting is on 26 September 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The Pound (GBP)
Key news events today
S&P Global Construction PMI (8:30 am GMT)
What can we expect from GBP today?
After returning to expansion in March, the construction PMI hit a 12-month high of 54.7 in May before slowing to 52.2 in June. The estimate of 51.0 points to a fifth straight month of expansion in July but construction activity is clearly slowing. Should the result miss market estimates, the Pound could come under pressure before the start of the European trading hours.
Central Bank Notes:
- The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 5-to-4 to reduce its Official Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 5.00% on 1st August 2024.
- Five members preferred to reduce the Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 5%, an increase of two from the previous meeting while four members preferred to maintain the Bank Rate at 5.25%.
- Twelve-month CPI inflation was at the MPC’s 2% target in both May and June but it is expected to increase to around 2.75% in the second half of this year as declines in energy prices last year fall out of the annual comparison, revealing more clearly the prevailing persistence of domestic inflationary pressures. Private sector regular average weekly earnings growth has fallen to 5.6% in the three months to May, and services consumer price inflation has declined to 5.7% in June.
- GDP has picked up quite sharply so far this year, but underlying momentum appears weaker. GDP had grown by 0.7% in 2024 Q1, with that strength appearing to have continued into Q2. Growth in the first half of the year had been stronger than expected at the time of the May Report.
- Business surveys had continued to point to underlying growth of around 0.3% per quarter, somewhat weaker than headline GDP growth. A margin of slack should emerge in the economy as GDP falls below potential and the labour market eases further.
- The Committee noted that it is now appropriate to reduce slightly the degree of policy restrictiveness but monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further.
- The Committee continues to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
- Next meeting is on 19 September 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The Canadian Dollar (CAD)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from CAD today?
Weaker demand for the greenback drove USD/CAD under 1.3850 overnight. This currency pair hovered above 1.3800 at the beginning of the Asia session – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 1.3780
Resistance: 1.3900
Central Bank Notes:
- The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 4.50% while continuing its policy of balance sheet normalization.
- Canada’s economic growth likely picked up to about 1.5% through the first half of this year and is forecasted to increase in the second half of 2024 and through 2025.
- Overall, the Bank forecasts GDP growth of 1.2% in 2024, 2.1% in 2025, and 2.4% in 2026, reflecting stronger exports and a recovery in household spending and business investment as borrowing costs ease.
- CPI inflation moderated to 2.7% in June after increasing in May as broad inflationary pressures eased.
- The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation have been below 3% for several months and the breadth of price increases across components of the CPI is now near its historical norm but shelter price inflation remains high, driven by rent and mortgage interest costs, and is still the biggest contributor to total inflation.
- These preferred measures of core inflation are expected to slow to about 2.5% in the second half of 2024 and ease gradually through 2025 and CPI inflation is expected to come down below core inflation in the second half of this year, largely because of base year effects on gasoline prices.
- There are signs of slack in the labour market with the unemployment rate rising to 6.4%, as employment continues to grow more slowly than the labour force and job seekers taking longer to find work. Wage growth is showing some signs of moderation, but remains elevated.
- The Governing Council’s future monetary policy decisions will be guided by incoming information and assessment of their implications for the inflation outlook.
- Recent data has increased the council’s confidence that inflation will continue to move towards the 2% target. Nonetheless, risks to the inflation outlook remain.
- Next meeting is on 4 September 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
Oil
Key news events today
API Crude Oil Stock (8:30 pm GMT)
What can we expect from Oil today?
Even though the API stockpiles declined over the past five weeks, crude prices remained under pressure over this period as a combination of slower job growth and manufacturing PMI activity in the U.S. and China rattled demand growth for this commodity. However, oil prices rose overnight as fears of geo-political escalation in the Middle East gained traction. WTI oil climbed above $75 per barrel this morning and could remain elevated as the day progresses.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
