The trading week ended with a whimper rather than a bang on Friday as the much-anticipated US PCE data came in exactly as expected, leading to a slight sell-off in stocks and the dollar.
However, the week ahead promises to be anything but quiet, with a plethora of tier 1 data due out in the US and around the world, along with several central bank updates as the great and good gather in Sintra for the annual ECB Forum. Once again, the biggest data release will come in the final session of the week with the US Non-Farms due out on Friday.
Traders are also preparing for potential gapping and volatility on the Monday open as Chinese PMI data is being released over the weekend, and the first round of French elections are being held on Sunday.
It could be a lively start to the day with Chinese numbers due out over the weekend and the Yen once again sitting at multi-decade lows. Euro traders will be keeping a close eye on election results from France as they come in throughout the day. There is little on the calendar in the Asian session, but the London open sees the first tier 1 data release of the week in the form of the German CPI data. Canadian markets are on holiday for Canada Day, but US markets are open, and we have the first of many data hits from stateside for the week when the ISM Manufacturing PMI data is released. Later in the day, we hear from ECB President Christine Lagarde for the first but certainly not the last time this week when she speaks from Sintra.
The Asian market opens with the focus on Australia as the RBA’s Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes are released early in the day. We have more inflation numbers in Europe later in the day with the Eurozone CPI Flash data due out, and it should be a busy day for US markets with both Fed Chair Jerome Powell and ECB President Christine Lagarde speaking, as well as the JOLTS Job Openings data release.
The APAC open once again sees the focus on Australia as the Retail Sales numbers are released before the latest Caixin Services PMI data is released in China later in the day. There are no major releases scheduled for the London session, but a plethora of data hits will come once New York opens with the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Claims, and ISM Services PMI numbers all due to be released. Christine Lagarde manages to pop up again later in the day as she delivers closing remarks in Sintra before the day is rounded out with the FOMC’s latest meeting minutes.
A relatively quiet day in Asia is followed by what should be an interesting day for European markets with a heavy focus on the UK, with elections taking place as well as the release of the latest Construction PMI data. Swiss CPI numbers are also due out early in the day, which could add some volatility to the franc. Investors are expecting a relatively quiet end to the day with US markets off for the July 4 holiday.
There is very little on the calendar for the first two sessions of the day, but expect things to really pick up once New York opens again with the key US employment data set due out early in the day alongside the Canadian employment numbers. The Ivey PMI number is also due out in Canada later in the day, and we get to hear one more time from ECB President Christine Lagarde towards the end of the day when she speaks in France.
