Investors are preparing for a week of two halves ahead, with a slower holiday-affected start of the week likely to be superseded by a data and central bank-heavy last few days. The last few sessions of last week were quieter than the preceding few days as Easter Holiday markets for once held to their recent ranges as PCE data in the US came in on expectations and the threat of intervention in the Yen market did not materialize – although many think it is just a matter of time, or more accurately price before it does!
Volatility is expected to remain high this week, with a US heavy data schedule and a plethora of Fed speakers due to add their opinions into the market.
Asian markets are expected to start on the front foot in another holiday-affected trading day after Chinese PMI data printed higher than expected over the weekend. Once again, many major centres are closed and there is little on the calendar for both the Asian and European sessions. The New York session does however feature the latest ISM Manufacturing PMI numbers out of the US and the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey release.
The first full trading day for 4 days kicks off with the initial focus on Australian markets with the release of the latest RBS Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes. The London session sees the focus on Germany with the key release of Prelim CPI numbers there and we have the first of the major job numbers out of the US in the form of the JOLTS Job Openings numbers. Later in the day we also hear from FOMC members, Williams, Mester, and Daly.
It is set to be a quieter start to the day on Wednesday with nothing of note scheduled on the event calendar, but markets should start to pick up on the London open with the Euro Flash CPI data due out early in the day. The North American session should see more volatility again with the ADP non-farm data due out alongside the ISM Services PMI numbers. Later in the day, all eyes (and ears) will be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell when he speaks in Stanford, with key employment data on the calendar this week any comments from him on those updates could see significant moves in the market.
Another quiet start to the day is expected on the calendar, with few noteworthy events scheduled and Chinese markets closed for Tomb Sweeping Day. Initial investor attention will likely be on Switzerland and the latest CPI update there, particularly following the SNB’s recent rate cut two weeks ago. During the New York session, the usual weekly unemployment claims data will be released, along with further updates from Fed members Barkin and Mester (once again).
It’s Non-Farm Friday again, but before we delve into those crucial numbers during the New York session, there are two more sessions to navigate. Once again, the Asian session lacks significant catalysts for traders, but attention should shift to the UK during the London Open with the release of the Construction PMI numbers. As the New York session begins, the spotlight falls on the release of the key non-farm numbers, alongside the Average Hourly Earnings and Unemployment Rate. While the headline number may trigger initial shockwaves, many traders anticipate that the other two data points will exert more sustained influence over time. Additionally, Canadian employment data is set to be released simultaneously, with the Ivey PMI number following later in the day.
