It was another hectic week in financial markets last week with stock markets, Gold and Bitcoin all hitting fresh record highs. We saw a bit of consolidation on Friday after Key US Non-Farm employment data came out stronger than expected but overall, the positive mood for investors looks set to permeate through to the fresh trading week. The event calendar is certainly not as busy as last week. However, traders are still expecting to see plenty of volatility in the market as the week progresses, especially after a final inflation update ahead of the Fed’s March meeting.
Here’s our usual day-by-day breakdown of the major economy’s scheduled risk events:
Asian markets may see some movement on the open with Chinese CPI data coming out stronger than expected over the weekend. The focus will shift to Japan with the release of the latest quarterly GDP data due out early in the session. Nothing major is on the data calendar for either the London or New York sessions, although sterling traders will look to see what MPC member Catherine Mann has to say late in the day when she speaks in London.
Probably the key day of the week on Tuesday with some major data releases scheduled across the trading sessions. The initial focus will again be on Japan in the APAC time zone with the release of the PPI data in Tokyo. Sterling traders will be on their toes early in the European day with the release of key employment data in the UK in London. However, the main highlight of the day – and possibly the week- will be the US CPI data due out soon after the New York open. The US 10-year bond auction will be a big focus for the bond market later in the day.
The Asian session looks very quiet in terms of the event calendar to kick off the day, so investors will be looking at the close in New York for their momentum. Sterling markets will again be in focus on the European open with the release of the GDP number, the highlight of a raft of UK data releases. Smoother trading conditions may be the order of the day in the US session with just the 30-year bond auction featured on the event calendar.
The first two sessions of the day are quiet on the event calendar which should lead to some smoother trading conditions; however, US markets will be in focus later in the day. We have the second key inflation number of the week due out, in the form of the PPI numbers, the weekly unemployment claims data, and the Retail Sales numbers – all numbers capable of strongly impacting Fed rate move expectations.
It is another day for US numbers on Friday, with just a smattering of tier 2 and 3 data releases due out during the Asian and European sessions. The Empire State Manufacturing Index number is first cab off the rank early in the day, followed swiftly by Industrial Production data and then University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectation numbers are due later in the session to take us into the weekend.
